Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 25.5% on 28 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 84 daily closes on record from 28 Apr 2026 to 20 Jul 2026, the highest close was 26% on 29 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 10 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 7.5% on 30 Apr 2026. $242.79K traded over the market's life.
82 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 21, 11:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 84 points, 28 Apr 2026 – 20 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Apr 2026 | 25.5% |
| 20 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 207.21K |
| Keen Meteor C5E7 | Yes | 29K |
| balthazar | Yes | 7.24K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban
| Yes |
| 6.52K |
| ZZ-TIC-M1 | Yes | 5K |
| pc0 | Yes | 5K |
| e46m3 | Yes | 3.48K |
| Cosmic Kestrel 91AB | Yes | 3K |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | Yes | 2.82K |
| Small-Ash | Yes | 2.24K |
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