Will Nathan James Nandala Mafabi win the 2026 Ugandan presidential election?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 17, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$37.3K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 17, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 17 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 3% on 18 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 62 daily closes on record from 18 Nov 2025 to 17 Jan 2026, the highest close was 3% on 18 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 14 Jan 2026. $37.34K traded over the market's life.

35 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 19, 12:21 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 62 points, 18 Nov 2025 – 17 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
18 Nov 2025	3.0%
17 Jan 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	23.29K
Emerald Falcon 3F4F	Yes	1.82K
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	889.97

10 of 35 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Uganda on January 15, 2026. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote outright, a second round of elections will be scheduled. This market will resolve to the candidate that wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ugandan Government, specifically the Ugandan Electoral Commission (https://www.ec.or.ug/).