Analytics
Resolved Yes on 12 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.9%. Yes opened at 34.5% on 24 Jun 2023. Before it settled, across the 203 daily closes on record from 24 Jun 2023 to 12 Jan 2024, the highest close was 99.5% on 10 Jan 2024 and the lowest 30.5% on 25 Jun 2023. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 90% on 11 Jan 2024. $668.04K traded over the market's life.
32 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 13, 5:05 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 203 points, 24 Jun 2023 – 12 Jan 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jun 2023 | 34.5% |
| 12 Jan 2024 | 98.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Swift Voyager 39A6 | No | 187.24K |
| Azure Oracle 45F0 | No | 832.45 |
| Vandal | No | 498.08 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2023 shows an increase of 1.03°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of 1.03°C or greater for 2023 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether prior years' figures are revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2023" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2023 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution source: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-nasa-record-2023-as-the-hottest-year-on-record
| Rapid Pioneer 757C | No | 260 |
| WagonBlq | No | 250 |
| KevinWan | No | 200 |
| thecodecook420 | No | 100 |
| Stiggy | No | 70 |
| Xvros | No | 69.77 |
| MAHASHINOBI | No | 66.67 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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