Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 19 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 133 daily closes on record from 19 Feb 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 49.5% on 19 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 29 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 27% on 20 Feb 2025. $84.94K traded over the market's life.
26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 12:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 133 points, 19 Feb 2025 – 1 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Feb 2025 | 49.5% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TwiZzy432 | Yes | 941.61 |
| CryptoSupervisor | Yes | 246 |
| Malkalev | Yes | 200 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) estimates that the 2024 YR4 asteroid has a 4% or greater chance of hitting Earth at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be information from NASA, specifically the Center for Near Earth Object Studies chart for Impact Risk Data, available here: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/. Look for "(2024 YR4)" under "Object Designation", and check the figure under "Impact Probability (Cumulative)" to find the information that will be used to resolve this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-nasa-estimate-a-4-chance-of-asteroid-hitting-earth
| Yes |
| 128.38 |
| papadou | Yes | 111.11 |
| PolyDump | Yes | 100 |
| MattyJ | Yes | 78.46 |
| Lorenzojdhdhdbdbdb | Yes | 75.56 |
| FrankSchaamvader | Yes | 56.84 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 47 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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