Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 41.5% on 29 Apr 2026. Before it settled, the high was 43.5% on 30 Apr 2026 and the low 0.5% on 31 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 27% on 1 May 2026. $7.01K traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 2, 4:55 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 34 points · 29 Apr 2026 – 1 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Apr 2026 | 41.5% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| perepuk | Yes | 72.14 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 50 |
| PPMT | Yes | 30.05 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”. Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution. For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kimi-k3-released-by
| Grandiose-Layer | Yes | 10 |
| Past-Misrepresentation | Yes | 10 |
| wwder | Yes | 5 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
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