Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in October?

Resolved

No, settled Nov 22, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$115.3K

Resolved

Settled

Nov 22, 2025 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 22 Nov 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 22% on 31 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 23 daily closes on record from 31 Oct 2025 to 22 Nov 2025, the highest close was 22% on 31 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 13 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 0.7% on 1 Nov 2025. $115.28K traded over the market's life.

65 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Nov 23, 4:33 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 31 Oct 2025 – 22 Nov 2025, chart shows 0%–30%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
31 Oct 2025	22.0%
22 Nov 2025	1.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	12.97K
tailevent	Yes	800
Cookedtan	Yes	674.84
wokerjoesleeper	Yes	564.56

10 of 65 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in October 2025 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 13, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.