Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in April?

Resolved

No, settled May 13, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$45.9K

Resolved

Settled

May 13, 2025 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 13 May 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.9%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 11 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 33 daily closes on record from 11 Apr 2025 to 13 May 2025, the highest close was 13.5% on 1 May 2025 and the lowest 2.1% on 13 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7.3 points down, to 4.3% on 5 May 2025. $45.93K traded over the market's life.

11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 14, 4:20 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 33 points, 11 Apr 2025 – 13 May 2025, chart shows 0%–20%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
11 Apr 2025	10.5%
13 May 2025	2.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	8.22K
Isahol	Yes	208.3
savageldn	No	87.46

10 of 11 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in April 2025 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 13, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.