Analytics
Resolved Yes on 5 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 97.5%. Yes opened at 48% on 19 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 98% on 12 Jul 2026 and the low 30% on 3 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 36 points down, to 47.5% on 19 Jun 2026. $8.91K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 205 points · 19 Dec 2025 – 5 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Dec 2025 | 48.0% |
| 5 Aug 2026 | 97.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.99K |
| abcdefgh123456 | No | 300 |
| Oklmntrader | No | 80.01 |
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mi-10-republican-primary-winner
| LarBotPrime | No | 32.8 |
| PPMT | No | 11.44 |
| banestow | No | 11 |
| Cobalt Beacon F168 | No | 9.83 |
| rocketcrypto | No | 5 |
| 56sdfdsfs | No | 3 |
| koijhugyt | Yes | 1.79 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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