Will MicroStrategy hold 400k+ BTC before 2025?

cryptoResolved

Yes, settled Dec 2, 2024 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$1.3M

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Dec 2, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 2 Dec 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 95.4%. Yes opened at 20% on 20 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 20 Nov 2024 to 2 Dec 2024, the highest close was 95.4% on 2 Dec 2024 and the lowest 20% on 20 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 52% on 22 Nov 2024. $1.25M traded over the market's life.

124 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 3, 3:15 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 20 Nov 2024 – 2 Dec 2024

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
734734	No	1.28K
Yvdsggg	No	599.27
pdj	No	593
Hankhan	No	504.17

10 of 124 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

On November 18, MicroStrategy announced that together with its subsidiaries, held an aggregate of approximately 331,200 bitcoins (see: https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/bltb564490bc5201f31/bltc841ab65fe7d972b/673b392ad908785dbba03616/form_8-k_11-18-2024.pdf). This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy holds 400,000 or more bitcoins at any point befroe December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.