Analytics
Resolved No on 29 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 59%. Yes opened at 29.5% on 19 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 19 Jul 2026 to 28 Jul 2026, the highest close was 47% on 22 Jul 2026 and the lowest 19% on 21 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 28 points up, to 47% on 22 Jul 2026. $2.05K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 30, 8:12 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 19 Jul 2026 – 28 Jul 2026, chart shows 10%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2026 | 29.5% |
| 28 Jul 2026 | 41.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft's total Cloud revenue for the upcoming fourth fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-microsoft-msft-q4-cloud-revenue-be-above-20260717035853186
| bjprolo | Yes | 5 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| Weepy-Item | Yes | 5 |
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