Analytics
“Will Microsoft have the top AI model on September 30?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Which company has top AI model end of September? (Style Control On)”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Sep 30, 2025. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 19 hourly price points from Sep 12, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025 (Yes between 0.1% and 10.5%); 10 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 362 recent public fills from 202 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control on will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-microsoft-have-the-top-ai-model-on-september-30
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 19.1K |
| Ziigmund | Yes | 5.11K |
| Almazet | Yes | 1K |
| aureli | Yes | 733.76 |
| moon-k58-lad | Yes | 141.37 |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | Yes | 139 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 124 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 28 |
| predictordeniz | Yes | 20 |
| TOTHEMOOOOOOOON | No | 2 |