Analytics
“Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?” is a politics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Who will acquire TikTok?”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is May 23, 2026. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 261 hourly price points from Sep 17, 2025 to Jul 1, 2026 (Yes between 0.1% and 51.4%); 158 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 62.3% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 174 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that that the listed individual, either personally or through an entity, enters into an agreement with TikTok to acquire its US operations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by the listed individual; their involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed individual and/or TikTok, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-microsoft-acquire-tiktok-637-223-119
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Firm-Tailbud | Yes | 2K |
| yangguang0511 | Yes | 1.5K |
| JOHT | Yes | 1.02K |
| labistiiia | Yes | 1K |
| norealtime | Yes | 1K |
| Noted-Poetry | No | 900 |
| lope119 | Yes | 863.46 |
| Royal Atlas 01C4 | Yes | 440 |
| lalalalq | Yes | 356.06 |
| bearwin | Yes | 313.97 |