Will Michelle O’Neill win the Irish Presidential Election?

Resolved

No, settled Oct 25, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$339.2K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 25, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 25 Oct 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 9.5% on 30 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 57 daily closes on record from 30 Aug 2025 to 25 Oct 2025, the highest close was 9.5% on 30 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 24 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8.7 points down, to 0.8% on 31 Aug 2025. $339.23K traded over the market's life.

42 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 25, 9:50 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 57 points, 30 Aug 2025 – 25 Oct 2025, chart shows 0%–15%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
30 Aug 2025	9.5%
25 Oct 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	539.56K
Cookedtan	Yes	64.54K
lissartter	Yes	14.36K

10 of 42 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The 2025 Irish presidential election must take place by Tuesday, 11 November 2025. This market will resolve to the individual who wins the next Irish presidential election. If the result of this election isn't known by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market group will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the he Irish Government, specifically the Electoral Commission (An Coimisiún Toghcháin (see: https://www.electoralcommission.ie/).