Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 2 Feb 2024. Before it settled, across the 182 daily closes on record from 2 Feb 2024 to 1 Aug 2024, the highest close was 10.5% on 2 Feb 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Aug 2024. $1.48M traded over the market's life.
67 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 5:13 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 182 points, 2 Feb 2024 – 1 Aug 2024, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2024 | 10.5% |
| 1 Aug 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| terrri2307 | Yes | 153.18K |
| BigMikeBeliever | Yes | 38.34K |
| traub | Yes | 11.38K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Michelle Obama, former First Lady of the United States, announces that she is running for president of the United States of America in 2024 by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Michelle Obama will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed to run for president of the United States, or whether she actually files to run for president in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Michelle Obama (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or her legal representation, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-michelle-obama-announce-presidential-run-before-august
| ExcaliburUA | Yes | 6.8K |
| politicalbetting | Yes | 4.56K |
| Jenny134 | Yes | 1.73K |
| aaa1234 | Yes | 1.56K |
| kindatired | Yes | 1.52K |
| Bitcoin-1-million-dollars | Yes | 1.02K |
| Robbro | Yes | 470.15 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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