Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 21% on 18 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 46 daily closes on record from 18 Jul 2026 to 2 Sep 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 21% on 18 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 29 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 3% on 26 Jul 2026. $49.86K traded over the market's life.
74 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 2, 8:17 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 46 points, 18 Jul 2026 – 2 Sep 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2026 | 21.0% |
| 2 Sep 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Michael Olise transfers from Bayern Munich to Real Madrid by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Loan deals will qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Bayern Munich and Real Madrid and a consensus of credible media reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-michael-olise-transfer-to-real-madrid-20260717222856707
| Yes |
| 416 |
| Harsh-Herring | Yes | 351.91 |
| 79fsdfs | Yes | 306.7 |
| Bodytobody | Yes | 266 |
| Zelenearn0 | Yes | 240 |
| leegunner | Yes | 223.76 |
| TheMasterMind | Yes | 200 |
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