Analytics
Yes is at 2.4%, down 4.6 points from 7% when the market opened on 19 Sep 2026.
Across the 39 daily closes on record from 19 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 11.2% on 20 Sep 2026 and the lowest 2.2% on 10 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.5%; a month before, 5.3%. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 3.7% on 21 Sep 2026.
Meta ranks sixth of the 18 outcomes in “Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of November?”. Google leads at 70.5%; ByteDance is at 15.1%.
$459.9 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $768.86, with a 4.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 31 trades, $2.64 bought Yes and $408.13 bought No.
The largest Yes position is 74744886D1081ab236510E04c5b617b914A3Cef7. with 150 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 411.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 32 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 5:23 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 19 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | 7.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 2.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 410.82 |
| 74744886D1081ab236510E04c5b617b914A3Cef7. | Yes | 150 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 100 |
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-text-to-video-ai-end-of-november
6 more outcomes, none above 0.5%.
| 2B9S | Yes | 68.03 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 47.69 |
| VonVonagh | Yes | 30.72 |
| HosoTrader | Yes | 20.4 |
| Impish-Disparity | Yes | 20 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 20 |
| cigarettes | No | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
