Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 2.5% on 4 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 119 daily closes on record from 4 Dec 2025 to 31 Mar 2026, the highest close was 3.4% on 27 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 27 Mar 2026. $26.84K traded over the market's life.
39 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 31, 8:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 119 points, 4 Dec 2025 – 31 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Dec 2025 | 2.5% |
| 31 Mar 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 17.98K |
| JJ3333 | Yes | 2K |
| WwW5555555555555 | Yes | 1.35K |
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-third-best-ai-model-end-of-march
| Yes |
| 999.96 |
| rated | Yes | 939.61 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 927.01 |
| Misty Summit 3196 | Yes | 666.66 |
| qianbeicelue | Yes | 300 |
| S888 | Yes | 170 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 156.09 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
