Analytics
Resolved Yes on 14 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.8%. Yes opened at 69% on 18 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 65 daily closes on record from 18 Feb 2026 to 14 May 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 99.9% on 13 May 2026 and the lowest 59.5% on 24 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 59.5% on 24 Mar 2026. $26.89K traded over the market's life.
25 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 15, 2:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 65 points, 18 Feb 2026 – 14 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Feb 2026 | 69.0% |
| 14 May 2026 | 99.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Wary-Octagon | No | 3.81K |
| PCMTest | No | 946 |
| Fabulous-Sweat | No | 854 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
If Marco Rubio visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Rubio physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Rubio enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Marco Rubio, the US Federal Government, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/marco-rubio-visits-china-by
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