Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Mar 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.5%. Yes opened at 25.5% on 16 Nov 2023. Before it settled, across the 112 daily closes on record from 16 Nov 2023 to 6 Mar 2024, the highest close was 59% on 11 Dec 2023 and the lowest 0.5% on 28 Feb 2024. Its largest one-day move was 39 points up, to 59% on 11 Dec 2023. $5.67K traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 6, 7:05 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 112 points, 16 Nov 2023 – 6 Mar 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Nov 2023 | 25.5% |
| 6 Mar 2024 | 2.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid Pioneer 757C | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Manchin (D-WV) announces that he is running for president of the United States of America in 2024, by March 5, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Joe Manchin will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed to run for president of the United States, or whether he actually files to run for president in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Joe Manchin (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his legal representation, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-manchin-announce-presidential-run-by-mar-5
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