Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election in the Lisbon district?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 19, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$8.9K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 19, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 19 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 17.5% on 8 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 8 Jan 2026 to 19 Jan 2026, the highest close was 17.5% on 8 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.2% on 19 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 6.5% on 10 Jan 2026. $8.87K traded over the market's life.

14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 12:21 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 8 Jan 2026 – 19 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–25%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
8 Jan 2026	17.5%
19 Jan 2026	0.2%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	18.96K
abc1d3d	Yes	1.74K
rated	Yes	534

10 of 14 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that receives the highest number of valid votes in the first round of this election in the Lisbon District (Distrito Lisboa). If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the first round of this election in the Lisbon District, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, such as on the Website of the Portuguese Ministry of Internal Administration (Ministério da Administração Interna) (https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/), or the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).