Will Luís Marques Mendes win 4th place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 19, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$54.4K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 19, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 19 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 50% on 15 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 15 Jan 2026 to 19 Jan 2026, the highest close was 53.5% on 18 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 19 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 53 points down, to 0.3% on 19 Jan 2026. $54.39K traded over the market's life.

53 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 8:21 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 15 Jan 2026 – 19 Jan 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
15 Jan 2026	50.0%
19 Jan 2026	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	26.31K
spx6900beepbop	Yes	10.24K
estrume	Yes	3.4K

10 of 53 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that receives the fourth-highest number of valid votes in the first round of this election. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the candidate whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the first round of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).