Will Livre win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?

Resolved

No, settled May 19, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$330.5K

Resolved

Settled

May 19, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 19 May 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 1.1% on 18 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 63 daily closes on record from 18 Mar 2025 to 19 May 2025, the highest close was 1.1% on 18 Mar 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 12 May 2025. $330.49K traded over the market's life.

13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 19, 12:49 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 63 points, 18 Mar 2025 – 19 May 2025, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
18 Mar 2025	1.1%
19 May 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	187.41K
uuuir88	Yes	500
maxbax	Yes	500

10 of 13 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

A snap legislative election will take place in Portugal on 18 May 2025 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 17th Legislature. This market will resolve to the political party that controls the most seats in Portugal's Assembly of the Republic as a result of the upcoming election. If voting in the next Portugal election for the Assembly of the Republic does not occur by February 28, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Portugal’s government (e.g. via https://www.portaldoeleitor.pt/en/Pages/default.aspx). Note: The AD (Democratic Alliance), composed of PSD (Social Democratic Party), CDS–PP (People's Party) and PPM (People's Monarchist Party) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for AD (Democratic Alliance) will be assigned to the PSD (Social Democratic Party). The CDU (Unitary Democratic Coalition), composed of the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for CDU (Unitary Democratic Coalition) will be assigned to PCP (Portuguese Communist Party) .