Analytics
Yes is at 12.7%, down 39 points from 51.5% when the market opened on 10 Sep 2026.
Across the 47 daily closes on record from 10 Sep 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51.5% on 10 Sep 2026 and the lowest 2.5% on 3 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 13.6%; a month before, 8.5%. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 28% on 12 Sep 2026.
$22.31 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $440.21 since listing. The order book holds $203.06, with a 5.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 23 trades, $5.78 bought Yes and $223.8 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 23 shares; the largest No position is Fluo with 100.
Trading closes on 1 Aug 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:18 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 47 points, 10 Sep 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026 | 51.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 12.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Fluo | No | 100 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 23.31 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 21 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lionel Messi appears in at least one match for Argentina at the 2028 Copa America. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An appearance means taking the field, whether as a starter or as a substitute, for any length of time. Being named in the squad or on the bench without taking the field does not count. If Argentina does not take part in the 2028 Copa America, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2028 Copa America is cancelled, postponed after August 1, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or Messi has not appeared in a match at the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from CONMEBOL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-lionel-messi-play-at-the-2028-copa-america
| pppnn |
| Yes |
| 20 |
| wheatherman | Yes | 19.99 |
| reuspimentel | No | 11.16 |
| fcancellara | Yes | 11.15 |
| browndust | Yes | 6.67 |
| Adventurous-Cribbage | Yes | 6.67 |
| BotFuvker | Yes | 6.12 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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