Analytics
Yes is at 71.5%, up 15 points from 57% when the market opened on 10 Oct 2026.
Across the 17 daily closes on record from 10 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 82% on 21 Oct 2026 and the lowest 57% on 10 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 80.5%. Its largest one-day move was 8 points up, to 65% on 11 Oct 2026.
Liberal–National is the favourite of the 4 outcomes in “Victoria Legislative Council Election Winner”, ahead of Labor at 14%.
$51.04 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $4.3K since listing. The order book holds $560.08, with a 21.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 75 trades, $1.19K bought Yes and $557.58 bought No.
The largest Yes position is sollydisa with 1.5K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.1K. Ten wallets hold 96.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 29 Nov 2026, 30 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 10 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 50%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | 57.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 71.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sollydisa | Yes | 1.54K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.13K |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 441.84 |
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Council (Victoria's upper house) as a result of the next Victorian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all Legislative Council seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, including members elected from joint Liberal–National groups, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties. Each Legislative Council seat will be attributed to the party under whose name the elected candidate, or the elected candidate's group, appeared on the ballot paper. Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the total number of Legislative Council seats won across all eight electoral regions. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of formal first-preference votes received in the Legislative Council election across all eight electoral regions, counting both above-the-line votes for the party's group and below-the-line first-preference votes for its candidates, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, including the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/victoria-legislative-council-election-winner-20261008161713819
| rocky42025 | No | 297 |
| Lucerys | Yes | 124.7 |
| donthackme | Yes | 80.83 |
| DuneMentat | Yes | 71.55 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 63.88 |
| PPMT | No | 58.16 |
| clarkveronica | Yes | 25.97 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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