Analytics
Resolved Yes on 12 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.7%. Yes opened at 81% on 20 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 52 daily closes on record from 20 Aug 2026 to 12 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 98.7% on 12 Oct 2026 and the lowest 81% on 20 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 91% on 21 Aug 2026. $3.38K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 13, 1:59 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 52 points, 20 Aug 2026 – 12 Oct 2026, chart shows 75%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2026 | 81.0% |
| 12 Oct 2026 | 98.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Attached-Prairie | No | 325 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | No | 120 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 43.16 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST. This market will resolve according to which of the following three Senate groups holds the most French Senate seats as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST: the Groupe Les Républicains, the Groupe Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain (SER), or the Groupe Union Centriste. The seat count for each group will be its total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés). A group will qualify as one of the three listed groups if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes the listed group's name or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the listed group; or - It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the listed group, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If two of the listed groups merge with each other, the merged group will be treated as the listed group that held more seats before the September 27, 2026 election, and the other listed group will be treated as holding no seats. If a listed group ceases to exist, it will be treated as holding no seats. Groups will be primarily ranked by number of seats on October 12, 2026. If two or more groups are tied on seat count, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the groups' listed names. This market will resolve to the group that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market. If the groups' composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the group's listed name that comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/french-senate-election-most-seats
| No |
| 30 |
| Dr.PNL | No | 19.4 |
| TENETENET | No | 10 |
| Rapid Quasar 51BA | No | 5 |
| triklozoid | No | 5 |
| Mojito9 | No | 0.6 |
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