Analytics
Resolved No on 17 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 17% on 10 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 10 Oct 2026 to 17 Oct 2026, the highest close was 17% on 10 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 17 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 4.5% on 11 Oct 2026. $7.25K traded over the market's life.
16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 18, 4:01 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 10 Oct 2026 – 17 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | 17.0% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 287.95 |
| Cald0x94 | Yes | 125.75 |
| asd56 | Yes | 100 |
Ledger is investigating reports of loss of funds from users who purchased hardware wallets through third-party reseller CryptoBillis. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ledger officially announces a plan to compensate, reimburse, or otherwise make whole any affected users for funds lost in this incident by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any form of qualifying compensation will count toward a “Yes” resolution, including but not limited to direct reimbursement, a dedicated victim compensation fund, or a formal arrangement with a third party (e.g., an insurer or the reseller) to cover user losses. A general statement of regret, or an offer to merely assist with investigation or asset recovery without a concrete compensation commitment, will not qualify. Replacement devices, discounts, or other goodwill gestures that do not cover lost funds will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be an official statement from Ledger or Ledger.com, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used to resolve this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-ledger-announce-compensation-or-reimbursement-for-affected-users-by
| galhammerman | Yes | 65.74 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| PPMT | Yes | 29.96 |
| needleladder | Yes | 20.3 |
| a5533 | Yes | 20.09 |
| seemar1308 | Yes | 14.99 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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