Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?

Resolved

Yes, settled Feb 9, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$272.7K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Feb 9, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 9 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.7%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 22 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 19 daily closes on record from 22 Jan 2026 to 9 Feb 2026, the highest close was 99.7% on 9 Feb 2026 and the lowest 48.5% on 22 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 66% on 29 Jan 2026. $272.71K traded over the market's life.

80 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 10, 8:25 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 22 Jan 2026 – 9 Feb 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
22 Jan 2026	48.5%
9 Feb 2026	99.7%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
zzz13	No	12.61K
jamesbond7	No	7.43K
lInmi	No	4.43K
RepublicOfChina	No	3.56K

10 of 80 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) wins a majority of seats, at least 233, in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election aren't known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the respective party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).