Analytics
Resolved No on 26 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 4% on 8 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 76 daily closes on record from 8 Aug 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49.5% on 10 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 24 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 45 points up, to 49.5% on 10 Aug 2026. $792.35 traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 27, 5:47 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 76 points, 8 Aug 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | 4.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Attached-Prairie | Yes | 324.99 |
| 2200FCA4fE3bAb3706522A8F4436B7656911474f. | Yes | 150 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lautaro Martinez officially finishes in the top 5 (positions 1 through 5) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon d'Or announcement (https://www.ballondor.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-top-5-finish-2026
| Yes |
| 20 |
| Ethical-Bamboo | Yes | 14 |
| Sleepy-Cactus | Yes | 6 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
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