Analytics
Yes is at 10.5%, down 21 points from 31.5% when the market opened on 21 Aug 2026.
Across the 66 daily closes on record from 21 Aug 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 31.5% on 21 Aug 2026 and the lowest 8.5% on 23 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 19.5%; a month before, 19.5%. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 22.5% on 24 Aug 2026.
Labor ranks second of the 4 outcomes in “Victoria Parliamentary Election Winner”. Liberal–National leads at 87.5%; One Nation is at 2.6%.
$1.53K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $8.43K since listing. The order book holds $43.63K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 140 trades, $591.18 bought Yes and $2.42K bought No.
The largest Yes position is probability with 2.4K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 2.9K. Ten wallets hold 96% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 29 Nov 2026, 32 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 1:58 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 66 points, 21 Aug 2026 – 29 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026 | 31.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 10.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.95K |
| probability | Yes | 2.39K |
| Astera | No | 1.18K |
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties. Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/victoria-parliamentary-election-winner
| BobbieBarker |
| Yes |
| 660 |
| FrozenParasite | Yes | 331.31 |
| chocolatepudding | Yes | 311.1 |
| donthackme | Yes | 212.67 |
| Dearest-Cowbell-Crunch | No | 150 |
| PrimePenguin | Yes | 140 |
| 74-75 | Yes | 82.04 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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