Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 50% on 21 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 204 daily closes on record from 21 Nov 2025 to 1 Jul 2026 (19 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 21 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 27 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 45 points down, to 5.5% on 22 Nov 2025. $2.55K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 1, 8:19 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 204 points, 21 Nov 2025 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Nov 2025 | 50.0% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Dave2027 | Yes | 168.33 |
| GollumGekko | Yes | 68.24 |
| NAA | Yes | 60.92 |
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| 53asdad | Yes | 56.94 |
| paas2 | Yes | 25 |
| chinchillaScholar | Yes | 19.8 |
| Slight-Ambiguity | Yes | 16.67 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 10 |
| Gogo8 | Yes | 10 |
| huyewell | Yes | 5.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
