Analytics
“Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Will Khamenei leave Iran by...?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Feb 28, 2026. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 11 hourly price points from Feb 19, 2026 to Mar 1, 2026 (Yes between 0.8% and 30.5%); 66 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 71.7% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 266 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Ali Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by January 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Ali Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Ali Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Ali Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-khamenei-leave-iran-by-december-31
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Kosher-Notice | Yes | 2.89K |
| Canida | Yes | 2.5K |
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 1.9K |
| Fortunate-Wildebeest | Yes | 1.01K |
| Enormous-Federation | Yes | 1K |
| Decent-Cost | Yes | 1K |
| shuzui | Yes | 1K |
| Shocking-Availability | Yes | 1K |
| Djjam | Yes | 953.56 |
| Marcelix | Yes | 686.33 |