Analytics
Resolved No on 10 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 1.9% on 6 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 6 Jan 2026 to 10 Jan 2026, the highest close was 2.8% on 9 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 10 Jan 2026. $2.59M traded over the market's life.
382 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 6, 8:34 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 6 Jan 2026 – 10 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2026 | 1.9% |
| 10 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| NSGneverstopgambling | Yes | 100.46K |
| Exemplary-Citizen | Yes | 75.5K |
| TURBO-FART | Yes | 58.74K |
| Magenilan | Yes | 29.66K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Ali Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by January 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Ali Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Ali Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Ali Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-khamenei-leave-iran-by-friday
| Steedjo | Yes | 22.1K |
| Nessim554 | Yes | 22.02K |
| predictingwithvibes | Yes | 21.68K |
| moa122 | Yes | 21.11K |
| evooo | Yes | 14.7K |
| baloteletubbies | Yes | 13.9K |
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