Analytics
Yes is at 34.5%, up 18 points from 16.5% when the market opened on 26 Sep 2026.
Across the 27 daily closes on record from 26 Sep 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 67.5% on 11 Oct 2026 and the lowest 16.5% on 26 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 41.5%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points up, to 60% on 10 Oct 2026.
It is one of 9 markets under “Which Dems will underperform Kamala?”.
$60 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.2K since listing. The order book holds $284.19, with a 53.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 103 trades, $280.47 bought Yes and $527.65 bought No.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 212 shares; the largest No position is bananabreakfast with 129.
Trading closes on 3 Nov 2026, 10 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 8:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 26 Sep 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | 16.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 36.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| AJSV | Yes | 212.27 |
| bananabreakfast | No | 128.88 |
| G.Hchen | No | 50 |
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Democratic candidate in a statewide midterm election has an unrounded vote share that is lower than the equivalent vote share earned by Kamala Harris in that state in the 2024 Presidential Election. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the relevant state in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate. If a candidate's vote share is identical to that of Kamala Harris, this market will resolve to "No". In the event that the relevant vote share for a candidate cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, or a candidate withdraws from the race in a manner that causes them to be permanently removed from the general election ballot, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-dems-will-underperform-kamala
| macrosteaks |
| No |
| 21 |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9 | Yes | 20 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 20 |
| mariacryptoss | No | 20 |
| romanew-1-new | Yes | 14 |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 7.63 |
| Bulibulibuli | Yes | 1.79 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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