Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 7% on 12 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 224 daily closes on record from 12 Mar 2025 to 21 Oct 2025, the highest close was 10.8% on 26 May 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 28 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5.1 points down, to 5.8% on 27 May 2025. $1.43M traded over the market's life.
181 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 23, 12:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 224 points, 12 Mar 2025 – 21 Oct 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2025 | 7.0% |
| 21 Oct 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 742.38K |
| Solapump | Yes | 114.89K |
| Cookedtan | Yes | 22.27K |
This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025
| rated | Yes | 15.72K |
| Knowing-Stretch | Yes | 10K |
| goldengraham | Yes | 10K |
| pipulka | Yes | 10K |
| eduardolalo | Yes | 9.93K |
| Ziigmund | Yes | 7.6K |
| wooplybooply | Yes | 6.28K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
