Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 90%. Yes opened at 51% on 10 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 85 daily closes on record from 10 Oct 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 79.5% on 7 Nov 2025 and the lowest 10% on 15 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 28 points up, to 79.5% on 7 Nov 2025. $2.28K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 85 points, 10 Oct 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2025 | 51.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 10.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 378 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 176 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 173 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new song between October 9 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released song or single is officially available for download or streaming (not including live performances or leaks) by the resolution date. Re-releases, remixes, or alternate versions of previously released songs will not count. Songs where the listed artist appears only as a secondary or featured performer, rather than the primary artist, will also not count. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. For listed groups of artists, tracks released by individual members, sub-units, or under any designation other than the listed group name will not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-artists-will-release-a-new-song-before-2026
| Yes |
| 111 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 88 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 58 |
| ViktorKrum | Yes | 50 |
| Rlso | Yes | 49.14 |
| Kanp | Yes | 48.98 |
| Cronnozzz | Yes | 46.77 |
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