Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 3.5% on 31 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 121 daily closes on record from 31 Dec 2024 to 30 Apr 2025, the highest close was 6.2% on 1 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 26 Mar 2025. $5.15M traded over the market's life.
191 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 30, 12:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 121 points, 31 Dec 2024 – 30 Apr 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2024 | 3.5% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 10.41M |
| Siziriv | Yes | 314.32K |
| Bassmaker | Yes | 95.27K |
The next Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Trudeau is the next Prime Minister of Canada following the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any interim/caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next Prime Minister of Canada is instated by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minster-of-canada
| Yes |
| 40.5K |
| kennedy6578 | Yes | 27K |
| grayce432 | Yes | 27K |
| atodd66 | Yes | 26K |
| shaeS9 | Yes | 26K |
| ilia360 | Yes | 25K |
| barbas | Yes | 24.13K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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