Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 14% on 20 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 43 daily closes on record from 20 May 2026 to 1 Jul 2026, the highest close was 23.5% on 26 May 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 27 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 13% on 1 Jun 2026. $51.16K traded over the market's life.
54 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 43 points, 20 May 2026 – 1 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 May 2026 | 14.0% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MrPlouche | Yes | 3.34K |
| veryhotgambler | Yes | 1.26K |
| Hilarious-Phenotype | Yes | 1.2K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-jos-luis-rodrguez-zapatero-be-arrested-by-june-30
| JKLAUSS | Yes | 999.99 |
| Huge-Broom-Bend | Yes | 755 |
| ricoysuave | Yes | 608.06 |
| waaaaaaaasaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa | Yes | 571 |
| Graceful-Front | Yes | 563.46 |
| Virtuous-Quail | Yes | 500 |
| Tough-Helmet | Yes | 383.54 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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