Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 50% on 27 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 88 daily closes on record from 27 Feb 2026 to 16 Jun 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 27 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 14 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 42 points down, to 8% on 28 Feb 2026. $2.35K traded over the market's life.
32 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 16, 8:08 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 88 points, 27 Feb 2026 – 16 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2026 | 50.0% |
| 16 Jun 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| Thesickest | Yes | 100 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 50 |
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ca-04-primary-winners
| Yes |
| 30 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 23.68 |
| v7H | Yes | 20 |
| vger7 | Yes | 20 |
| Coral Oracle 4399 | Yes | 17 |
| Kronosssss | Yes | 13 |
| Past-Misrepresentation | Yes | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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