Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 50%. Yes opened at 58.5% on 4 Sep 2026. Before it settled, the high was 58.5% on 4 Sep 2026 and the low 33% on 8 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 33.5% on 6 Sep 2026. $138.74 traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 6 points · 4 Sep 2026 – 9 Sep 2026 · axis zoomed to 20%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | 58.5% |
| 9 Sep 2026 | 50.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
John Ternus is scheduled to participate in Apple's "Surprise and Shine" event on September 9, 2026, 1 PM ET (https://www.apple.com/apple-events/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Ternus says the listed term at any point during the event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If John Ternus does not speak during the event, the event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be video of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-john-ternus-say-during-his-apple-keynote-20260902
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