Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 52% on 26 Nov 2025. Before it settled, the high was 52% on 26 Nov 2025 and the low 0.4% on 4 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 20% on 27 Nov 2025. $68.48K traded over the market's life.
45 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 5, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 100 points · 26 Nov 2025 – 4 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Nov 2025 | 52.0% |
| 4 Mar 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 5.14K |
| jocpolitic | Yes | 826.39 |
| zhuicimei | Yes | 230.63 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the third-most votes in the first round of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to take place on March 3, 2026. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/3rd-place-in-first-round-of-texas-republican-senate-primary
| Yes |
| 218.75 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 214.14 |
| rangbigeng | Yes | 202.5 |
| puzaidi | Yes | 191.58 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 165 |
| cowcat | Yes | 159 |
| fensongnang | Yes | 150.25 |
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