Analytics
Resolved No on 18 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 94.5%. Yes opened at 51% on 14 Feb 2026. Before it settled, the high was 51% on 14 Feb 2026 and the low 5.5% on 18 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 31.5% on 15 Feb 2026. $3.01K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 19, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 5 points · 14 Feb 2026 – 18 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | 51.0% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | 5.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| t189 | Yes | 50 |
| PenautButter | Yes | 40.37 |
| Utter-Downgrade | Yes | 23 |
| order-j | Yes | 10 |
| 2026richlv | Yes | 10 |
| mdgc | Yes | 10 |
| Benwen | Yes | 7.69 |
| mrindianchud | Yes | 5 |
| Harmful-Determination | Yes | 1.96 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
JD Vance is scheduled to participate in a fundraiser in Manhattan on February 17, 2026 (see https://www.nationalreview.com/news/vance-to-continue-aggressive-rnc-fundraising-schedule-into-midterms/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during his appearance at the fundraiser on February 17, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. This market is explicitly about JD Vance's appearance at the fundraiser in Manhattan on February 17. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by February 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-jd-vance-say-in-manhattan-on-february-17
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