Analytics
Yes is at 20.5%, down 27 points from 47% when the market opened on 18 Aug 2026.
Across the 67 daily closes on record from 18 Aug 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 47% on 18 Aug 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 14 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 20.5%; a month before, 20.5%. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 18% on 19 Aug 2026.
It is one of 10 markets under “Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?”.
$6.83K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $650.86, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 120 trades, $324.92 bought Yes and $1.57K bought No; the largest was a $1.1K buy of No at 80.5¢.
The largest Yes position is AiBird with 606 shares; the largest No position is trx1 with 1K. Ten wallets hold 95.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 16 Nov 2026, 19 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 7:44 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 67 points, 18 Aug 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2026 | 47.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 20.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| trx1 | No | 1.04K |
| AiBird | Yes | 605.99 |
| FrozenParasite | Yes | 502.98 |
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/japan-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026-qoq-annualized
| Indigo Signal 2966 |
| No |
| 464 |
| SmartBoyBilly | Yes | 280.54 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 263.41 |
| Dr.PNL | No | 173.47 |
| Swift Meteor 30F2 | Yes | 50 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 31.53 |
| Close-Timber | No | 24 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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