Analytics
Resolved Yes on 23 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 95.5%. Yes opened at 37% on 8 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 44 daily closes on record from 8 Feb 2026 to 23 Mar 2026, the highest close was 95.9% on 5 Mar 2026 and the lowest 35.5% on 9 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 40 points up, to 80.5% on 12 Feb 2026.
32 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 24, 2:03 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 44 points, 8 Feb 2026 – 23 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | 37.0% |
| 23 Mar 2026 | 95.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.08K |
| 0xRocket666 | No | 200 |
| 88mnm88 | No | 137 |
| i-race | No | 76.8 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tx-32-republican-primary-winner
| Jade Horizon C4F7 | No | 48.56 |
| Royal Quasar 3DFB | No | 31.25 |
| Ivory Horizon D168 | No | 25.86 |
| N0DEAI | Yes | 10.6 |
| 09F911029D74 | No | 8 |
| Terrible-Pantologist | Yes | 7.48 |
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