Analytics
Resolved Yes on 6 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 73%. Yes opened at 33.5% on 25 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 25 Mar 2026 to 5 Apr 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 73% on 5 Apr 2026 and the lowest 33% on 27 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 47.5% on 28 Mar 2026. $134.4K traded over the market's life.
42 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 7, 6:54 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 25 Mar 2026 – 5 Apr 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Mar 2026 | 33.5% |
| 5 Apr 2026 | 73.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| oak | No | 3.42K |
| LukeDelta | No | 2K |
| FatPeanut | No | 1.81K |
| homewrecker | No | 1.58K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-gaza-on
| Fraw | No | 956.64 |
| Lavincey | No | 809.49 |
| Hossein10 | No | 799.99 |
| Bleak-Jealousy | No | 750 |
| Golden Beacon 67A6 | No | 261.32 |
| wizardito | No | 208.95 |
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