Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 39.5% on 4 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 4 Oct 2025 to 1 Nov 2025, the highest close was 39.5% on 4 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 31 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 25.5% on 5 Oct 2025. $74.25K traded over the market's life.
40 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 4 Oct 2025 – 1 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2025 | 39.5% |
| 1 Nov 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 16.77K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 4.3K |
| d15 | Yes | 822.83 |
| Cylindrical-Pupa | Yes | 469.97 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of days (ET) on which Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemeni embassy or consulate between October 3, 3:00 PM ET, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If multiple strikes occur within 4 hours of each other, they will be counted as a single strike, regardless of whether the strikes span two days (e.g., if Israel strikes on September 15 at 10:00 PM ET and September 16 at 1 AM ET, this will count as a single strike for September 15). The timing of the strike will be based on the reported time of impact. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemeni ground territory or any official Yemeni embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemeni soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemeni territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-israeli-strikes-on-yemen-by-october-31
| Scorpion1 | Yes | 441.01 |
| zgfa668 | Yes | 321.43 |
| sargon | Yes | 310.75 |
| RegThinks | Yes | 295 |
| Ziigmund | Yes | 271.6 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 254.79 |
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