Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.4%. Yes opened at 9% on 1 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 1 Feb 2026 to 1 Mar 2026, the highest close was 9% on 1 Feb 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 17 Feb 2026. $95.59K traded over the market's life.
50 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 3, 12:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 1 Feb 2026 – 1 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2026 | 9.0% |
| 1 Mar 2026 | 2.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Skinny-Class | Yes | 3.25K |
| wan123 | Yes | 1.26K |
| Villainous-Dealing | Yes | 601.05 |
| asfdt22 | Yes | 374.84 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iraqi soil or any Iraqi embassy or consulate between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iraqi ground territory or any official Iraqi embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iraqi soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iraqi territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-strike-iraq-by-february-28
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 255 |
| MiddleEastPro | Yes | 254.52 |
| ydxistheking | Yes | 113 |
| yuanshuwu | Yes | 104.35 |
| dubbl | Yes | 62.53 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 50 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
