Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 27.5% on 6 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 6 Jan 2026 to 3 Feb 2026, the highest close was 63% on 12 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 3 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 56% on 7 Jan 2026. $60.37K traded over the market's life.
40 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 6, 8:54 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 6 Jan 2026 – 3 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2026 | 27.5% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Icy-Gingerbread | Yes | 1.59K |
| takvejesimya | Yes | 1.13K |
| SomeOne45 | Yes | 1K |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 703 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut between market creation and the listed date, Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
| Tan-Turban | Yes | 550 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 400 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 277 |
| 78763 | Yes | 156.66 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 145 |
| MasterGambl | Yes | 141.65 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-strike-greater-beirut-by-319
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
