Analytics
Resolved No on 25 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 92%. Yes opened at 44.5% on 20 Oct 2025. Before it settled, the high was 44.5% on 20 Oct 2025 and the low 8% on 25 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 8% on 25 Oct 2025. $50.45K traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 26, 4:34 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 20 Oct 2025 – 25 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2025 | 44.5% |
| 25 Oct 2025 | 8.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Abhisaar | Yes | 717.07 |
| FabulousCar | Yes | 400 |
| dashagroyper | Yes | 201.19 |
| d15 | Yes | 108.85 |
| AmanL | Yes | 105.08 |
| Knobby-Scheduling | Yes | 100 |
| Stagosh | Yes | 64.07 |
| Difficult-Sequel | Yes | 50 |
| Alarmed-Pamphlet | Yes | 46.51 |
| ducqueminh | Yes | 35.64 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-strike-gaza-on
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