Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 23% on 27 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 37 daily closes on record from 27 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 23% on 27 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 6.5% on 28 Nov 2025. $42.93K traded over the market's life.
41 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 37 points, 27 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Nov 2025 | 23.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 15.28K |
| flow-trader-at-optiver | Yes | 747.33 |
| Sarcastic-Chipmunk | Yes | 492.22 |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 473.23 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between December 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of November 26, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-december
| Paner | Yes | 328.22 |
| WannaBetNot3000 | Yes | 297.43 |
| Immense-Driver | Yes | 252.33 |
| Kior | Yes | 250 |
| YairVR | Yes | 245.72 |
| Numb-Petal | Yes | 231.56 |
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