Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.5%. Yes opened at 20.5% on 6 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 22.5% on 13 Jan 2026 and the low 0.5% on 31 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 11.5% on 7 Jan 2026. $76.54K traded over the market's life.
42 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 12:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 6 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2026 | 20.5% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 2.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 8.22K |
| CoolGuy14 | Yes | 983.97 |
| Itacar | Yes | 692.34 |
| Virtual-Highlight | Yes | 385.18 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-january
| Azure Beacon 684E | Yes | 221.41 |
| Silver Kestrel D550 | Yes | 210.63 |
| Xomaj19 | Yes | 179.98 |
| trentk | No | 167.55 |
| transcomp | Yes | 122.81 |
| villleus | Yes | 120.59 |
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